The Old World has been about for a couple months now, if you count the leaks at least, and as always there's a mad scramble to figure out "What is powerful" vs. "What is weak" with respect to factions. In my opinion this is still too early to make those kinds of conclusions: we still badly need a massive FAQ/Errata to explain numerous interactions that could have a drastic effect on power levels of units/factions, there have been no meaningful GT level events and likely won't be until Summer, and the people with the most games played are using TTS or similar which is semi-useless for real world play.
Instead of getting mired in faction vs. faction, I've continued to look at game wide systems and their overall usefulness, issues, and so on. Previously I touched on Magic and how it seems quite under-baked and unskillful, an opinion that only grows stronger as I play more and more. This time I'd like to touch on another specific topic: Ballistic Skill Shooting.
I'm separating out BS Shooting from other kinds, namely War Machines, because attacks that roll to Hit in the Shooting Phase are quite a bit different from other attacks that are also called shooting. So let's take a look at archers, gunners, and the rest with a competitive eye and see what's what.
Covered in Cover, Partially
One of the big changes for TOW is how easy it is to get Cover, of some kind, compared to other Rank and File games. Let's have a look at the verbatim rules for Partial and Full Cover before we move on:
Read that carefully, because the details matter. Note that for Partial Cover, it says "up to half of the target model...or up to half of the models within the target unit...", this is the most important bit. Taken as written, this makes Cover very rare to NOT have, especially for units. Even one model, partially obscured by Terrain or or other models, grants Partial Cover and a -1 to Hit. Now, imagine how often this will come up during normal play and you can start to see that a -1 to Hit is almost baked in for ranged attacks.
In most of my games, the opponent might get one Turn where some of their shooting can get around Cover, although not always. This is because every faction has access to Screens, if you're unfamiliar Screens are a cheap unit that runs in front of your main army and fill a variety of roles. Skirmishers are the most popular Screen but units like Chaos Warhounds, or even minimum "normal" Infantry can occupy the role.
When I play my Beastmen, I take three units of Ungors and run them as Skirmishers. This allows me to have walking Cover for my entire army, if I want to, and this same tactic is available to almost every faction. Better yet, I can position my Skirmishers depending on what I'd like my opponent to do. For example: I'm playing against High Elves with two units of Archers. I want them to target my tougher units behind the Ungors, because they'll do less damage (-1 to Skirmishers or Partial Cover, likely Long or Short Range to both). I might ensure that the units behind my Screens are only getting Partial Cover, to incentivize that as a target. On the other hand, if I'm playing against beefier BS Shooting, such as Thunderers, I'll move the Ungors to give Full Cover and force the opponent to target my Screen first.
What does all this mean? The player with BS Shooting has very little agency with regards to Cover and can be forced into shooting sub-optimal targets for fear of otherwise simply doing no damage. This is particularly bad for static shooting: units that can't move far and/or can't ignore the Move and Shoot penalty. Once deployed, moving them only makes the unit even worse at its intended role, and doesn't guarantee that the opponent can't move in kind to get Cover again.
Fold Our Bows in Prey-er
So why does this matter? Well, shooting in Warhammer Fantasy has rarely been particularly strong as a whole and TOW is no exception. Units are often hitting on a 3/4+ with no modifiers, with Cover that goes to a 4/5+ and that's assuming no movement, no Skirmishers, no Long Range, etc. While changes like Volley Fire have helped BS Shooting to roll more dice, in some cases, such weapons are typically Strength 3 with no AP and struggle to wound/kill even if they get a few Hits.
Another change is that the small units that BS Shooting used to prey on have changes substantially. You see less units of things like 5 Warhounds or Dire Wolves because there's incentive to run them bigger now. Flyers interact better with Terrain so they don't need to approach in the open. Even normal Core and so on units are bigger than was once normal, except for perhaps 8th Edition Fantasy, so inflicting just a couple wounds on the approach does very little if anything.
When any unit is added to an army, that unit needs to have a defined role or its a waste of points. What is the role of BS Shooting right now? You can attack enemy units that fill the same role but that's unlikely to be decisive, awarding no VP. It's not as though you need to thin such a threat so that a melee brick can defeat it, shooters have always gotten run over by most anything that reaches them. Stripping a few models from 30-40 strong blocks also does nothing, it's valuable against smaller units but these are likely to be more elite troops, probably having better Toughness/Armor Saves as well, and they will typically be screened. BS Shooting can hardly ever target Characters so threatening Wizards isn't a thing. You're basically left with shooting the enemy screens...except that's exactly what they're for and they probably cost less than what's attacking them.
In contrast to War Machines, BS Shooting rarely has a solid target to go after. There aren't many "elite" units that fill this role either, take Waywatchers as an example. At 16ppm, base, these hit on a 2+ but only have S3 Bows. You can better those but that pushes the models to 17-18ppm, quite steep even among Heavy Infantry. Instead, Waywatchers pay for rules that don't benefit them fulfilling their role, they have defensive rules. Feigned Flight and so on is great until you realize the opponent has no reason to ever care about the Waywatchers, they can just eat a few Turns of shooting, get into Combat, and forget about them. They aren't going to be killing many Chaos Warriors or other beefy threats, on average 10 Waywatchers would kill ~1 per Turn and that's without any modifiers to their BS. At 160pts that's not a lot of work done.
I'm not intending to go after one specific unit, I picked Waywatchers because they're among the best shooting in the game that uses BS, thanks to their accuracy and options for arrows. The point is that even with all that, they won't do a ton. With upgrades and going to 180pts for 10, you're getting a bit over 2 kills a Turn for usually half the game. Did that make their points back? Did it make a huge difference in the game? Probably not.
Some Light Does Exist
While this paints a bleak picture of BS Shooting, not all is lost. My personal favorite way to run such units is as Detachments in factions like Tomb Kings and High Elves. In this role BS Shooting can really shine: Detachments are often cheap and small so the investment isn't hurting you, Stand & Shoot counts for Combat Resolution which provides the unit a role, and if shooting isn't great they can instead declare a Supporting Charge and serve as a deterrent. Unfortunately only a few factions can use Detachments but it's better than nothing.
Another way to make this kind of shooting work is to use Cavalry instead of Infantry. By having better Movement, the unit can avoid Cover much more often and also get around various LoS issues that plague static shooting. This allows for a much more versatile unit as it can stay still and shoot, move around and shoot, threaten a Flank/Rear Charge (often with Cavalry Spears or similar), force March Tests, and so on. Yes, you're getting less total attacks but the significantly expanded options for the unit make that easily worth the trade to me. Even better if the Cavalry have access to Short Bows or some other instance of Quick Shot. Skirmishers can share a similar role in this respect, they aren't as agile as Cavalry but they can get into weird places and offer a diversity of roles.
I'll provide a last example: Bretonnian Peasant Archers. These can either use Close Order, or Skirmish, but otherwise they don't change much because we all know Defensive Stakes and Braziers do nothing. While normally a very poor shooting unit, being able to Skirmish is extremely transformative. Now they can screen for Knights against an opponent of equal speed, or someone who invested heavily in shooting. It doesn't matter if their Bows are useless because they do more than just fire them.
Long Story Short
Putting this all together, I've been recommending against players taking BS Shooting units that don't bring anything else to the table. A unit of Thunderers standing around isn't going to do anything for an army, so don't bother with them. If you feel your army needs shooting, look at War Machines, Skirmishers, Cavalry, etc. because you'll get much more out of them game to game. Otherwise several hundred points could be standing around doing nothing once combat is joined and shooters are rarely even semi-competent in a fight.
Speaking of War Machines just a bit, I'd be mistaken not to look at Bolt Throwers. For me, these are one of the exceptions to static shooting, in some respects. Repeater Bolt Throwers are quite poor because they cost a lot and force a negative modifier on themselves via Multiple Shots. Normal Bolt Throwers, such as show in Dwarves or Orcs & Goblins, are worth fielding. At ~50pts, taking a pair of these to dump on either flank and forget about is fine with me. Yes, they will miss quite often but when they hit they can net kills on valuable targets like Cavalry or Heavy Infantry. As the opponent closes you can also get flank shots, doing even more damage. I'm not saying Bolt Throwers light the world on fire, they're just acceptable to take.
In every respect, TOW is not a shooting edition. War Machines and all other flavors of ranged attacks are more nerfed than buffed overall while many factions need every point they can find to field a competent army. Units that hunt shooters are mostly better than they've been in the past, and have other roles to fill so you will see them all the time. We're playing with more Terrain than other Rank and File games, impacting LoS and Cover. Panic is drastically nerfed so even the chance of forcing an enemy to flee is unlikely to ever happen. It's almost all bad for the bow boys in the back.
Embrace the game as it is and leave your ranged units on the shelf, see how it feels without them. Did you notice a major difference after a few games, were those points better spent elsewhere? My bet is the answer will be yes.
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